Abiy to win re-appointment in vote marred by insurgency, ballot fraud, shadow of civil war

To hear Ethiopia’s Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed tell it, Ethiopia’s general election held on Monday was a resounding success.   Speaking to reporters after casting his ballot in Beshasha, Abiy, whose ruling Prosperity Party is widely expected to win in a landslide, attributed reports of electoral irregularities to the “historical enemies of Ethiopia” who have financed and deployed internal factions to cast skepticism on Ethiopia’s ability to hold democratic elections.  Despite these attacks, the prime minister said, the success of the election showed the resolve of the Ethiopian people.  However, throughout the weeks leading up to the election and on the day of the election itself, the reality on the ground offered a stark contrast to the government’s democratic narrative. On Monday, opposition parties and the National Election Board of Ethiopia (NEBE) documented numerous cases of ballot fraud, prompting the board to adopt exceptional measures to try to preserve the election’s integrity. Voters throughout the country faced perilous security situations and heightened security presence. Addis Ababa assumed a state of near-total shutdown, with heavily armed patrols, armored military vehicles and riot control units dominating major thoroughfares throughout the day. Major commercial hubs in the capital, such as Bole and Megenagna, were entirely deserted. Non-mandated closures extended to critical infrastructure, including numerous private clinics and pharmacies, reflecting deep public apprehension. Before the election even began, Ethiopia’s main electoral body announced that voting had been canceled or indefinitely postponed across a total of 46 constituencies due to severe instability and armed conflict. In Tigray, a total suspension was enacted across all 38 of its constituencies due to unresolved territory disputes, widespread displacement and the official de-registration of the former ruling party, the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), after a two-year civil war with federal forces.  In the Amhara region, which holds 138 constituencies, voting was canceled in eight specific areas, including South Gondar, West Gondar, Ambasel and Dega Damot, following disruptions caused by ongoing clashes between federal forces and Fano militias. Additionally, localized cancellations impacted selected polling stations throughout the Oromia region, driven by persistent insecurity involving the Oromo Liberation Army (OLA). The situation in Amhara was compounded on election day, when militias launched attacks to disrupt polling stations.   Monday’s election is widely expected to secure Abiy a second term in office, as his ruling Prosperity Party controls most of the levers of power and has worked to undermine any opposition. But by pushing forward with a vote while major portions of Tigray, Amhara and Oromia are effectively locked out, the federal government risks turning the election into an exercise that cements existing ethnic divisions amid serious threats to its stability and the potential outbreak of further war.  *** For the beginning of polling on Monday, the credibility of the vote faced immediate challenges from opposition parties citing intimidation and fraud, particularly in regional hubs. In the Central Ethiopia Regional State, the Gurage Unity and Justice Party (GOGOT) filed a formal complaint with the NEBE, demanding an immediate halt to proceedings in the Wolkite constituency. The party alleged that its polling observers were physically assaulted and forcibly removed from stations.  Furthermore, Gogot officials claimed to have witnessed the illicit distribution of ballot papers transported in plastic bags. In the Gumer-1 constituency of Geto Wereda, the Gogot Party reported systemic “threats and harassment” directed not only at their deployed observers but also at their  families, raising safety concerns. The NEBE completely shut down a polling station in the Burji Zone in the South Ethiopia Regional State due to what it called illegal activities committed by its own staff. The decision was announced by board chairperson Melatwork Hailu. “Because the election executives themselves were found marking ballot papers and casting votes at the Burji polling station, the board decided to completely close and shut down that polling station,” Melatwork stated. Journalists from Ethiopia Insider were actively barred from filming or inspecting polling preparations by local security forces, a source from the outlet told Mada Masr. When these claims were brought up to the NEBE, Melatwork condemned them, labeling the obstruction of accredited media as “erroneous” and a violation of electoral guidelines. In Addis Ababa, eyewitnesses told Mada Masr that they saw plainclothes security and intelligence personnel operating inside polling stations without official NEBE badges inspecting voters and directing polling logistics.  The NEBE had to adapt dynamically to security failures and reports of illegal state interference. In a press conference held before reporters on Monday, Melatwork laid out the state of elections and the board’s steps to try to preserve the integrity of the vote.  Melatwork Hailu, chairperson of the National Election Board of Ethiopia (NEBE). - Courtesy: Ethiopia Observer. Due to long queues and delayed openings, the NEBE extended the voting deadline from the standard 6:00 pm until midnight to ensure queued voters could cast their ballots. Melatwork acknowledged that 143 polling stations failed to open entirely due to active security threats in parts of the Amhara and Oromia regions. Voting was abruptly halted mid-day, she said, in several other areas within these two regions due to escalating instability. The disruptions in the Amhara region were the result of widespread military operations conducted by the Fano militants. Fano spokesperson Asres Mare told Mada Masr that the group successfully deterred voting across many areas of the region. Military clashes broke out early in the morning of election day, with hundreds of attacks throughout the region. The scale of the disruption was highly visible in Debre Tabor, one of the biggest cities in the Amhara region, where out of 80 scheduled polling stations, only a single one managed to open. Once allied with Addis Ababa, the Amhara Fano rebelled against the federal government in 2023 in protest over plans to integrate Amhara fighters into the national military, and have since been engaged in an armed conflict in the region’s highlands. Some Ethiopian National Defense Forces elements defected to the group in 2023. The Fano spokesperson told Mada Masr that the polls could only open in main cities where the ENDF were actively present. The security situation was so critical that the deputy prime minister and the regional president had to be accompanied by two UAE Akinci drones in order to safely cast their votes, a Fano official told Amhara media. Speaking to the press after casting his ballot, Abiy noted that peace cannot be achieved solely through the state’s will and pledged that the ruling Prosperity Party would work to resolve security crises over the next five years regardless of the election’s outcome. Despite the prime minister’s self assured public stance, the situation in Amhara has caused Abiy concern in recent months.  At the beginning of May, the Ethiopian military command held a series of high-level evaluation meetings in Addis Ababa and at the Bishoftu Air Force premises to address the country’s worsening security landscape. The primary objective of these sessions, a senior Ethiopian military source told Mada Masr, was to evaluate the general security crisis, with a specific focus on the recent fighting in Kobo, where Amhara Fano insurgents gained the upper hand and confiscated heavy artillery from the state. During a 30-minute appearance at the Bishoftu meeting, Abiy criticized and reprimanded the gathered high-ranking military generals, directly accusing several leading figures of providing the heavy artillery to the Fano forces during the Tigray war — weapons that the insurgents are now using to fight back against the ENDF, the source said.  Abiy warned generals from Amhara, Oromo and Tigray — including those who joined the ENDF following the Pretoria agreement, the ceasefire which ended the Tigray war — against leaking strategic information to insurgents, the source added.  *** And while Amhara represents the present day security concern for Abiy’s government, the election day exclusion of Tigray will not do anything to heal the simmering tension with the northwestern region.  For TPLF spokesperson Michael Asgedom, Tigray is trapped in a state of ongoing survival and any questions about political competition are secondary.  Tigray is facing an existential crisis driven by mass displacement. Millions remain displaced, scattered across 146 temporary internal camps or living as refugees in neighboring Sudan. The region has also suffered significant territorial losses. Local authorities assert that over 40 percent of Tigray’s sovereign territory including Western Tigray, Tselemti, Humera and Raya Alamata remain under the occupation of what they consider to be hostile forces.  Making matters worse, Tigray suffers from severe shortages of cash, fuel and essential medicines. As a result, the regional government has moved to shut down public schools prematurely due to extreme budget deficits. “We are simply not in a position to hold an election,” Michael told Mada Masr. “This is not the time to talk about votes. We are focusing entirely on the continued survival of our people and figuring out how to navigate this existential crisis.”  The exclusion of Tigrayan federal representation stands in direct violation of the Pretoria Cessation of Hostilities Agreement signed in November 2022, which brought an end to the active civil war. Article 9 of the African Union-mediated peace accord explicitly stipulated that the federal government must facilitate and guarantee the re-entry of Tigrayan representation into federal institutions, including both houses of parliament, in accordance with the constitution. However, instead of a smooth reintegration, the peace process slowed to a crawl, with both sides trading blame. The situation deteriorated significantly when the TPLF fractured into two competing internal factions, one aligned with Addis Ababa and the other remaining hostile to the federal government. Rather than organizing a united front to secure the political rights of the Tigrayan population, the factions became embroiled in an internal power struggle over the presidency of the interim regional government.  In response to this political instability and the TPLF’s failure to hold a mandatory national assembly within legally defined parameters, the NEBE officially revoked the TPLF’s legal status as a registered political party. This move resulted in the exclusion of opposition parties like Smeret, Qanchi Haqi and Tinsae Seba Enderta from the general election. “One electoral cycle passed without Tigray’s participation. Now, another five years will pass without them. In total, it will mean 10 years of complete exclusion,” notes Alemayehu Fentaw, a researcher at Indiana University’s Maurer School of Law. “After this, can we even talk about Tigray being a part of the Ethiopian federation? I am not certain.” The political gridlock between Addis Ababa and Mekelle has generated widespread international concern regarding a potential return to open warfare. The federal government has sent troops heavy hardware toward northern deployment sectors since the start of the year.  Compounding the concern, the civil society group Priority for Human Rights Ethiopia flagged coercive recruitment practices within the region. The organization’s director, Tesfalem Berhe, noted reports of forced conscription targeting unemployed youths, returnee fighters and local artisanal gold miners. While Michael Asgedom insists that Tigray is actively seeking a peaceful, diplomatic resolution to its grievances, he emphasized that defensive preparations remain underway. “Saying we do not want conflict does not mean we will not defend ourselves against an invasion,” Michael said. “We will absolutely prepare to counter any aggression directed at our survival.” *** Abiy’s Prosperity Party entered the election as the dominant political entity, controlling the vast majority of regional and federal state mechanisms. In the last election in 2021, his party won a landslide victory, taking 410 seats out of 484 in parliament. It ensured the continuation of that dominance in this election cycle.  Although more than 40 opposition parties — including the Ethiopian Citizens for Social Justice, the National Movement of Amhara and the Oromo Federalist Congress — were on the ballot in this round, their ability to campaign effectively has been severely compromised. Human rights monitoring groups, including Freedom House, have documented a steady narrowing of Ethiopia’s civic and political space. Opposition figures, independent activists and journalists face persistent harassment, arbitrary detention and strict travel bans under active emergency measures. The NEBE disqualified 80 individual candidates across nine separate political organizations for failing to meet basic registration criteria within the designated timeframe.  Separately, 309 candidates belonging to the Ethiopian Social Democratic Party (ESDP) were barred from competing following a binding court ruling. Opposition voices warn that this continued monopoly over power does not bode well for the Prosperity Party.  “The regime must stop self-appointing itself to the throne through a sham election, a mockery inherited from its ideological forefathers, and realize that the sole source and owner of power is the people,” Getnet Worku, the leader of the opposition Coalition for Ethiopian Unity, told Mada Masr, adding that his party will soon launch a comprehensive, nationwide, public-centered and peaceful movement.  “Although the final results and documented irregularities from all regions have not yet been fully compiled, what we witnessed from the pre-election phase to the polling day, and its aftermath, makes one thing glaringly obvious: this process is riddled with monumental flaws,” he said. “The Prosperity Party cannot escape the legacy of the [former-ruling coalition] the Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front, with its political co-optation and its obsessive, greedy appetite for total monopolization, which erroneously claims a misleading 97 percent approval rate. In both character and execution, this process is no different from the historic sham elections our nation has suffered through.”The post Abiy to win re-appointment in vote marred by insurgency, ballot fraud, shadow of civil war first appeared on Mada Masr.