Central African Republic - Food Security Outlook Update : Insecurity is prolonging Crisis (IPC Phase) as lean season starts in the south, April - September 2026

Country: Central African Republic Source: Famine Early Warning System Network Please refer to the attached file. Key Messages Between April and September 2026, Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are expected to persist in the northeast, southeast, and northwest of the country, in the prefectures most affected by insecurity and isolation. Persistent insecurity will continue to restrict access to fields, income-earning opportunities, and major trade routes. Poor households’ dependence on markets, combined with the depletion of stocks, high food prices, and seasonally low income-earning opportunities, is expected during the lean season in the north from July to September. Deteriorating food access is anticipated particularly in areas affected by insecurity and isolation, contributing to the progressive erosion of livelihoods among poor and displaced households. In Ouaka, Basse-Kotto, Ouham-Fafa, and Mbomou, Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are expected between April and June during the lean season due to stock depletion, high market dependence, limited seasonal income, and high prices. From July onward, the arrival of harvests is expected to support an improvement to Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes in most areas, except in isolated localities or those affected by persistent insecurity. In prefectures less affected by insecurity in the center and south, Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes are expected through September 2026. Relatively better market functioning and the start of seasonal agricultural labor opportunities at the beginning of the rainy season are expected to mitigate the erosion of poor households’ livelihoods, though they will still be unable to fully cover essential non-food needs. Poor households, particularly host households and urban displaced households in Bangui, will continue to face reduced purchasing power amid seasonal price increases.